Prioritizing the Factors Influencing the Success of Technology Transfer by Reverse Engineering Case Study: Aviation Engines Industry

One of the basic purposes in developing countries had been reduction of their technological gap in different eras. So, technology transfer in developing countries has become one of the key factors of economic growth. But technology transfer is a difficult and complex process, so it can be unsuccessful and may waste time and money or undermine the national technology if performed without enough considering and study. Therefore, according to high ability of interior experts and scientists and country's condition to have a successful technology transfer, Reverse Engineering is used as an effective factor. In this paper supporting 15 experts and using Fuzzy Delphi Method, the effective factors on success of technology transfer by reverse engineering in aviation engines industry will be recognized and then prioritized by members of statistical sample and Analytical Network Process (ANP). Finally, we will have three components, "technical knowledge for redesign", "technical knowledge for producing", and "organizational association with original country" that are the most important among the other ten selected components.


Introduction
Nowadays in communication and information era, being one of the most important methods for gaining, improving and developing technology in many developing and developed countries makes technology transfer a wishful method for many importers and exporters of technologies.Technology transfer is a complex process with so many difficulties which if it is not done in a proper way; it will interfere technology transfer and spoil the time and investment.So, in order to evaluate and select the suitable technology which is one of the most important stages in complex process of technology transferring, http://www.ispacs.com/journals/jfsva/2016/jfsva-00259/International Scientific Publications and Consulting Services by selecting the best method suitable for country requirements and economy agencies, we will have the less harms and money spoiling [1].Habibi who is known as the establisher of aeronautics industry in Indonesia says: "the receivers of technology should be ready for doing the manufacturing programs step by step and gaining profit percent of the technology transferor company".He called this approach "Advanced Manufacturing" and developed the motto," Beginning from the End and Get to the End at the Beginning", it means that the receiver company should begin with manufacturing and then go back and do searching.Reverse engineering as a method for technology transferring is done when international companies or technology owner countries deny giving the right or exporting of advanced technology.So developing countries try to manufacture some products as original product.Many of these companies distribute their product without paying any copy right cost even with a lower price to the markets.… China in a period of time vastly used this method and copied without paying any copy right cost in car industry which was resulted in many complaints from some big car companies like Toyota, Volks Wagon and GM (General Motors).

Literature Review Technology Transfer:
Technology transfer is the process on which technology moves from the origin and places its creation in order to produce products and basis of creating new technology, and finds a way to other country.This process contains the various steps like the process of selection, acquisition, adaptation, absorption, usage, dissemination and development of received technology [2].Reverse engineering is the process of design, production of parts, assembles and operations after production of the products and systems.

Reverse Engineering:
The process of duplicating an existing component, subassembly or product without the aid of drawings, documentation, or computer model is known as reverse engineering.Reverse engineering is the general process of analysing a technology specifically to ascertain how it was designed or how it operates.This kind of inquiry engages individuals in a constructive learning process about the operation of systems and products.Reverse engineering as a method is not confined to any particular purpose, but is often an important part of the scientific method and technological development.The process of taking something apart and revealing the way in which it works is often an effective way to learn how to build a technology or make improvements to it.A chemical company may use reverse engineering to defeat a patent on a competitor's manufacturing process.In civil engineering, bridge and building designs are copied from past successes so there will be less chance of catastrophic failure.In software engineering, good source code is often a variation of other good source code [3].

Technology Transfer with Reverse Engineering Approach:
One of the important channels for accessing technology is reverse engineering.It is not required to have an active participate of technology source.For this purpose, a group of specialists in different subjects of sciences(subject experts) introducing exactly the functional mechanism of a product and accessing to its technology and using equipment and laboratory instruments method claim that underdeveloped countries can decrease the technological gap between itself and industrial countries, but using this method must be respondent against requirements and must have development and application affect and innovation in these countries as well [4].The most important advantages and applications of reverse engineering are as follows: http://www.ispacs.com/journals/jfsva/2016/jfsva-00259/International Scientific Publications and Consulting Services  The primary benefit of reverse engineering is new product development  Transforming absolute products into useful ones by adopting them to new systems and platforms  The primary objective of reverse engineering is the development of unrestricted technical data which is adequate for competitive procurement through engineering evaluations of existing hardware.

The Introduction of Aviation Engine:
An aviation engine is the component of the propulsion system for an aircraft that generates mechanical power.Aviation engines are almost always either lightweight piston engines or gas turbines.
In aviation engine industry some kinds of turbine and piston are manufactured.Some basic items that have to be concerned in manufacturing aero engines are as follows: Any scientific basis in methodology or recognizing method and validity and value of scientific laws is based on which science is used [5].Research methodology is a set of rules, tools and valid (reliable) and systematic ways that are used to check the facts, explore the unknowns and achieve solutions for the problems [6].
In the current study, we first identify components affecting the effective transfer of technology through reverse engineering approach, and then using Fuzzy Delphi Method, 15 experts of the domain of aircraft engine will select the effective components.Finally, 30 members of the statistical sample prioritize the effective components using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) which has been obtained using a judgment method.

Overview of Fuzzy Delphi Method:
Fuzzy Delphi method was devised in the 1980s by Kaufmann and Gupta [7].This approach applied to decision-making and consensus on issues that are not clear objectives and parameters, and was considered very important.The main feature of this method is to provide a flexible framework that covers many of the barriers related to the lack of precision.Many of the problems in decisions are related to the incomplete or inaccurate information.On the other hand, adopting decisions of experts is based on their personal competence and highly subjective.Often there is an uncertainty in the expert opinions.So it is better displaying data with fuzzy numbers instead of definitive numbers, then the fuzzy sets will be used for analysing experts' opinions.

Definition of Linguistic Variables
A questionnaire is used to obtain expert opinion in order to identify the factors affecting the transfer of technology through reverse engineering.So, experts are going to express through the variables the amount of their agreement on the appropriate selection of following indicators.Therefore, it is clear that qualitative variables give the experts more freedom.In this questionnaire, the qualitative variables such as "very low", "low", "medium", "high" and "too much" have been used.The subjective opinion of qualitative variables such as high or low is not the same.Since experts have different characteristics, they have different mentalities as well.And if the answer options are based on different mentalities, the analysis variables will be null.However, by defining the scope of qualitative variables, the experts will answer the questions with the same mentality.Therefore, the qualitative variables which are triangular fuzzy numbers define as follows.For confirmation of the numbers in most studies of Minkowski Formula, we have the following equation: http://www.ispacs.com/journals/jfsva/2016/jfsva-00259/ International Scientific Publications and Consulting Services X = m + (B-a) / 4 (4.1)According to the questions of questionnaire and linguistic variables defined in the questionnaire, the mean phase of each component is calculated according to the following equations [7].
) ( For applying Delphi test, a number of 15 experts were selected in the field of technology transfer.In the first stage, 28 components of the four main indicators were identified by reviewing the theoretical literature with initial conceptual model of research sent to expert members and the extent of their agreement with each of the components calculated with respect of the linguistic variables defined in the model.At this stage, mean phase of each component is calculated according to the equations (4.2) and (4.3).In the following tables the results of the first stage of the survey have been collected: Collecting the questionnaires and the comments and suggestions of experts and having direct negotiations with experts, the following results were obtained in the first round questionnaire: 1-Due to direct relation currency fluctuations and rising inflation components the first and second questionnaires were proposed in combination and presented in the form of a component.2-Due to the success of technology transfer by reverse engineering method in pawn on technology localization, the components entitled "The ability to localize technology" will be added to the questions of a questionnaire.Then, the questionnaire was sent to the experts with the changes mentioned above including the individuals' point of views and its differences with the mean comments.http://www.ispacs.com/journals/jfsva/2016/jfsva-00259/International Scientific Publications and Consulting Services Since the difference between the mean phase of the first and the second surveys in components 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 25 is less than the threshold (0.1), the experts have concluded to stop the survey of the above components.In the second step with applying changes in the components and removing components that experts have concluded to remove them, the new questionnaire is redesigned and sent to the members of the expert group considering the difference between each person's views and the total mean of the views.Regarding the difference mean of the second and the third stages for all components is less than the threshold (0.1), considering the components in this step was stopped and the survey was ended.As a result, among of these 28 primary components, 2 components were merged, a component was added and 18 components were removed and finally, this study will have 10 effective components in technology transfer by Reverse Engineering Method at the Aviation Engines Industry.

Network Analysis Process (ANP)
ANP process is a general state and the more widely form of AHP.So all its positive features such as simplicity, flexibility, employing both quantitative and qualitative criteria concurrently, and have the ability to check compatibility in judgments and therefore, can have complex relationships (interdependencies and feedback) between the elements of the decision applying the networked structure instead of hierarchical structure.All the elements in a network can be in any form of communication with each other.In other words, feedback and interaction between and among clusters is not impossible in a network [8].To make the issue structure as already mentioned, the experts' points of view were used by Phase Delphi Method and 10 components (sub criteria) were selected from 28 identified components at the end of the surveys.Also after selection sub criteria, they were asked to determine dependencies of each criterion and sub criterion to create the network structure.The following table shows the dependencies of each criterion and sub criterion obtained from the majority of votes:    As seen in Figure 1, interdependence specified between criteria and sub criteria are described for main criteria and sub criteria in tables 6 and 7, respectively.According to the model network structure in Figure 2, it is necessary to specify the general structure of super matrix (initial matrix).Therefore, using basic structure shown in Figure 2, the initial super matrix structure will be as follow as in Figure 3: http://www.ispacs.com/journals/jfsva/2016/jfsva-00259/International Scientific Publications and Consulting Services

Formatting the Paired Comparison Matrix and Determining the Priority Vectors
Now, we need to complete the above matrix, calculate and control main criteria of comparison matrix, consider criteria dependence to each other, sub criteria dependence to each other and their compatibility as well.To achieve the optimal results, a questionnaire was performed including mentioned comparison matrix and sent to about 30 members of statistical sample describing the ANP method asking them to fill the questionnaire.In order to determine the eigenvectors of the main criteria relative to target (W21) matrix, the main criteria were compared in pair and the result is presented in Table 6:  Therefore, for determining the main criteria dependence and its eigenvectors, the following matrix W22 is completed and presented here.Table 7 shows paired comparison of the main criteria, when the main criteria of "the economic factors" are controlled: Similarly, the next tables show the paired comparison when the main criteria "Absorption Capacity", "Technical Knowledge", "Technological Capability" are controlled, respectively.The mentioned tables and their eigenvectors are completed and calculated by software, noticing that the values in matrix w22 will be observed in Figure 5: In this stage, the importance coefficient of each sub criteria related to the main criteria is obtained by their paired comparing and the coefficients will form the importance of elements in the column of matrix w32.The table below shows paired comparisons of sub criteria according to the main criteria, "economic factors":

Building Initial (Unbalanced) Super Matrix and Turning It into A Balance Super Matrix:
By obtaining all required matrix (W21, W22, W32, and W33) and entering it in the initial matrix (W), the unbalance super matrix is formed.Now we need to form a balance super matrix because in this case sum of each column of super matrix might be equal to one.To convert unbalance super matrix to balance super matrix, we should multiply unbalance super matrix by the clusters matrix that means each of the column cluster elements of the unbalance super matrix must be multiplied by the vector importance of that cluster (the cluster matrix) relatively.
Considering the structure of the initial matrix in Figure3, only nonzero elements of the second column need to be compared.Means in the column of the main criterion of the clusters that related to "the main criteria" are compared with the cluster that related to "the sub criteria" in this column.Following

Computing the Limit Super Matrix:
For computing the super matrix, it is necessary to multiply balance super matrix by itself and we continue until the result is proved, so, repeating the next square of super matrix makes no change in its components.Using the relation (5.4), the limit super matrix was calculated by Super Decision software.In the following table, the full report of the analytical network process that presented by the software is observed: of the technology transfer and after confirming the results, they will be questioned that leads to offer following suggestion at the end: 1.The proposal is to identify designed bottlenecks and provide direct and indirect plans and technical documentation.2. Sometimes the desirable technology transfer in government system is something beyond capacity of the technology and industry knowledge that in these cases it will reduce government notification system and will support the economy and knowledge, so, it will have a significant impact on the success of technology transfer.3.In the inflation period, the monetary exchange replacement to currency exchange will be suggested and using of financial and political support should be in the government's agenda.4. It is recommended to provide samples of products during the process of reverse engineering by engineers and researchers in the technical knowledge producing and its products.5.It is recommended that agencies provide some conditions to communicate to origin country through direct or indirect channels, so the origin country services can accelerate the transfer of technology through reverse engineering and also removing bottleneck.6.And finally, it is recommended that the expectations and needs of the domestic market and customers to be assessed when selecting technology.In fact, localization technology will be the result of successful technology transfer using reverse engineering method.

Table1
technology Performing paired comparisons, the network model is presented in the following figure.According to Figure 1, outer and inner dependences are considered among the criteria and sub criteria:

Figure 1 :
Figure 1: Network Research Model to prioritize criteria

Figure 2 :Figure 3 :
Figure 2: Network Structure of the research model

Figure 4 :
Figure 4: Paired comparison of main criteria

Figure 5 :
Figure 5: Matrix of the main criteria

Figure 6 :
Figure 6: Significance coefficients matrix of sub criteria for each of the main criteria (W32)

Table 2 :
Display results of the first stage in the form of fuzzy numbers

Table 3 :
The final scores of the components approved by the experts

Table 4 :
Main criterion interdependence relative to each other International Scientific Publications and Consulting Services

Table 5 :
Sub criterion Interdependence relative to each other

Table 6 :
Paired comparison of main criteriaRegarding to the above table, the eigenvectors of the main criteria relative to target (W21) which is calculated by the Super Decision software is as follows: http://www.ispacs.com/journals/jfsva/2016/jfsva-00259/ International Scientific Publications and Consulting Services

Table 7 :
Paired comparison of the main criteria or control of the main criteria of "the economic factors"

Table 8 :
Paired comparison of sub criteria related to the main criteria "economic factors A"

stable rate and real exchange and interest A1
Just like the other main criteria namely "Absorption Capacity", "Technical Knowledge" and "Technological Capability", paired comparison is performed in the above table formatting.After completion of the tables and calculating significance coefficients by Super Decision software, W32 matrix will be modelled as follows: http://www.ispacs.com/journals/jfsva/2016/jfsva-00259/ International Scientific Publications and Consulting Services

Table 9 :
Paired comparison of the sub criteria interdependency with the sub criteria "low inflation and stable rate of exchange and interest A1"

determination to overcome the transferring obstacles through reverse engineering B2
Now, significance coefficients of each above table are calculated by Super Decision software and its result can be seen in the following matrix W33 figure.

Table 11 :
Initial clustered matrix

Table 1 :
Final output of the Super Decision softwareAfter identifying and prioritizing influencing factors on technology transfer with reverse engineering methods in aerial motors industry, the results will submit to the aircraft engines field experts and reporters sub criteria http://www.ispacs.com/journals/jfsva/2016/jfsva-00259/ International Scientific Publications and Consulting Services